Latest news with #Shigeru Ishiba
The Independent
9 hours ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Anti-vaxxers inspired by Trump and Reform UK make big gains in Japan
The once-fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Sunday's upper house election in Japan, capitalising on voter discontent as prime minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition lost its majority. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito won only 47 of the 125 contested seats in the House of Councillors, missing their goal of 50 required to retain control. Their combined strength in the 248-seat chamber shrunk to 122, down from 141 earlier. Despite this setback, Ishiba says he is not resigning, vowing to focus on trade negotiations with Donald Trump amid rising public frustration over soaring prices and US tariffs. His position, analysts say, is made more precarious by the fact he has already lost control of the more influential lower house in last year's election, and LDP are now ceding ground to traditionally fringe opposition parties campaigning on right-wing messages such as big tax cuts and stricter immigration controls. Sanseito secured 14 seats in the upper house compared to just one in the last election three years ago. In the more influential lower house, it currently has three seats. The rapid ascent of the party, modelled on populist movements abroad, marks a dramatic shift in Japanese politics. Its improved strength in the upper house gives Sanseito a louder national platform, which it is likely to employ to push its anti-immigration, anti-globalist agenda more aggressively. 'The LDP has turned from right-wing to a centrist position. So there is a vacuum in the ideological spectrum,' Yu Uchiyama from Tokyo University's Advanced Social and International Studies department, explains to The Independent. ' Sanseito has successfully taken the vacuum.' The origins of Sanseito The rise of Sanseito from a largely online fringe group in 2020 to a political force shows its ability to tap into growing public discontent. After initially gaining attention with its anti-vaccine and anti-masking views during the Covid pandemic – a former leader labelled Covid vaccines a 'lethal weapon' – the party rebranded with a 'Japanese First' platform focused on overtourism, economic stagnation and anti-immigration sentiment. Although the party has toned down its rhetoric since, its leadership has continued to echo what have been called conspiracy theories around public health, according to The Asahi Shimbun. As foreign workers and tourists have risen sharply in number in recent years, Sanseito has leveraged public anxieties around national identity, security, and inflation to gain wider traction, advocating stricter controls on immigration, stronger defence policies, and economic reforms. 'The phrase 'Japanese First' was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people's livelihoods by resisting globalism,' Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya, 47, told local broadcaster Nippon Television after the election. 'We were criticised as being xenophobic and discriminatory. The public came to understand that the media was wrong and Sanseito was right. We are gradually increasing our numbers and living up to people's expectations. By building a solid organisation and securing 50 or 60 seats, I believe our policies will finally become reality,' he said. How do Sanseito's gains impact LDP? Sanseito's rise is damaging the LDP by pulling away many of its core conservative voters. Analysts say some LDP supporters feel the prime minister is too moderate and lacks the strong nationalist views of former leader Shinzo Abe. They cite examples such as recent legislation to promote awareness of LGBT+ rights and issues. 'Prime minister Ishiba is considered not conservative enough by many supporters of the former prime minister Abe,' Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer in Japanese Studies at Kanda University of International Studies, told the BBC. 'They think that he just does not have the nationalistic views on history, he doesn't have the strong views against China that Abe had.' The result is not just fewer seats for the LDP, but a challenge to its position as the main voice for the Japanese right, analysts say. It also signals growing unrest within the conservative base, making it harder for the LDP to maintain unity and control. 'The political situation has become fluid and could lead to a leadership change or the reshuffling of the coalition in the coming months, but prime minister Shigeru Ishiba will likely stay to complete the tariff negotiations with the US for now,' says Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist for Oxford Economics. In spite of its big gains, the road ahead for Sanseito remains difficult. The party lacks the 20 seats needed to submit budget bills, for instance, thereby limiting its direct influence on legislation. Who is Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya? Kamiya is the unlikely face of Japan's populist right. As the head of Sanseito, the onetime supermarket manager and English teacher has built a loyal following online, where his videos blend nationalist rhetoric, conspiracy theories, and sharp attacks on the political elite. He was formerly a member of the LDP and received support from Abe in the 2012 election, though he lost. He went on to launch Sanseito in 2020 and became its first and only elected lawmaker in 2022. A former military reservist, Kamiya admires US president Donald Trump and often targets political and financial elites in his speeches. His campaign gained wide traction through social media thanks to coordinated messaging and provocative statements such as calling gender equality policies a mistake and warning that Japan risked becoming a 'colony' under globalist influence. As votes were counted on Sunday, Sanseito leaders, including Kamiya, used their media appearances to defend the party's contentious 'Japanese First' slogan and push back against accusations of xenophobia. Kamiya claimed that the slogan was 'about standing up against globalism and protecting the lives of Japanese citizens'. 'The notion that people who want to discriminate and kick foreigners out are flocking to Sanseito is, I think, a little wrong. We aren't that kind of party,' he said. Kamiya, whose upper house seat is secure until 2028, did not stand in Sunday's election. To soften his image and appeal beyond the party's core base of young men, he fielded several female candidates in the latest election, including the singer Saya, who won a seat in Tokyo. What worked for Sansieto? Kamiya has openly looked to Germany's AfD and Reform UK as models for how a populist party might thrive in Japan. Unlike in the US and Western Europe, populism had struggled to gain a foothold in the East Asian nation – until now. Like other opposition parties, Sanseito campaigned on tax cuts and more generous child benefits, proposals that worried investors already concerned about Japan's massive public debt. Prof Uchiyama notes that Sanseito's platform may appear ideologically inconsistent at first glance, blending right-wing nationalist rhetoric with left-leaning economic promises like greater child support. 'It's certain that Sanseito's platform seems to lack coherence. Actually their slogan 'Japanese First' is that of right-wing populists, while their expansionist fiscal policy is that of left-wing populists. However, Sanseito insists that cash handouts should be limited to those with Japanese citizenship. In this point, there is sort of coherence,' he tells The Independent. What really set Sanseito apart during the campaign was its powerful digital strategy and ability to tap into online discontent. Leveraging its more than 400,000 YouTube subscribers – nearly three times that of the LDP – the party built an influential platform to directly challenge the political establishment. 'It seems that those who supported Abe's right-wing LDP have now turned to Sanseito because the LDP under Fumio Kishida and Ishiba has got close to the centrist position. Besides, Sanseito effectively utilised SNS and YouTube,' Prof Uchiyama says, referring to social networking services. 'Voters who mainly get political information by SNS and YouTube are more likely to support Sanseito than voters who don't.' This strong online presence allowed the party to amplify its message, reach disillusioned conservative voters and spread its rhetoric far more effectively than its rivals. Sanseito's hardline stance on immigration has already nudged the country's political discourse further right, prompting the government to declare a crackdown on crimes by foreigners and pledge 'zero illegal foreigners' just days before the upper house election. The rise of revisionist parties presents a significant threat to Japan's democratic discourse and foreign policy, Uchiyama tells The Independent. 'I am afraid the rise of such parties poses a great risk to Japan's democracy. There are now many people in Japan who believe fake news and conspiracy theories,' he says. 'It will undermine democratic norms that are necessary to keep our polity healthy.'
Japan Times
12 hours ago
- Business
- Japan Times
Japanese bonds remain vulnerable as unpopular Ishiba holds on
Japanese government bonds are vulnerable to further selling following a historic election defeat for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, although the immediate reaction Tuesday has been damped by a rally in global debt markets. Benchmark 10-year bonds fell only slightly as trading resumed in Tokyo, pushing yields up by 1.5 basis points. Stocks opened higher on post-election relief, even as their outlook remains at the mercy of tariffs. The yen dipped and faces downside risks in the coming days and weeks from the prospect of more government spending. While Ishiba hanging on as leader for now provides a measure of continuity for markets, he will also need to find ways to placate opposition lawmakers seeking tax cuts and households wanting relief from inflation. Any concessions to these pressures can be expected to quickly translate into higher bond yields. With Japan's markets closed for a national holiday on Monday, investors expressing an initial view on the election did so largely through the yen, which advanced about 1% against the dollar after weakening for most of July. The currency weakened about 0.1% to trade around 147.51 as of Tuesday morning in Tokyo. "Concerns over fiscal expansion continue to simmer in the market, and in light of the election results, JGBs could come under selling pressure,' said Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management. "I anticipate a bearish steepening of the yield curve, driven especially by super-long bonds.' Benchmark 10-year bond yields rose to 1.535%, while the 5-year bond yields rose a basis point to 1.05%. Yields on longer-maturity JGBs of 20 to 40 years dipped slightly on Friday but have been in an acute uptrend over recent months. The moves in Japanese yields, which have flowed through into global markets, reflect concerns among investors that the government is spending beyond its means. "Any sense of calm in JGBs is unlikely to linger. Japan's government will need to get on with expansionary policies to win over support from smaller political parties. Moreover, there is a 40-year auction on Wednesday which is unlikely to be smooth sailing ... Meanwhile, there is a global theme of yield curve steepening which isn't going away,' Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield said. A lack of clarity around fiscal and economic policies is likely to dim the global appeal of Japanese assets, at least in the short term, said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group. She added that political uncertainty may complicate Tokyo's trade negotiations with Washington, denting market sentiment. "A triple dip scenario is still on the table,' according to Wu, referring to the risk of the yen, bonds and stocks all falling. Despite Ishiba's insistence that he'll remain in charge, "investors are likely to question how much political capital he has left,' she said. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday that cutting the consumption tax as proposed by opposition parties would be inappropriate. While Japan's benchmark Topix stock gauge has bounced back from its sharp decline in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs salvo in April, it remains well off the record high set in mid-last year. "For Japanese equities, the picture is more complex,' said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Sydney. "A weaker yen may offer short-term support to exporters, but the deepening political noise threatens to erode broader investor confidence.' The yen could also be hit, particularly if long-term government bonds sell off, said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager at T&D Asset Management. "There's a significant possibility of yen depreciation,' he said. "Although I expect super-long JGB yields to rise, it's for negative reasons. That could prompt yen selloffs.' Nick Twidale, chief analyst at ATFX Global Markets, said he expects selling in Japanese stocks and an overall weakening in the yen, despite its "initial haven move' higher on Monday. "There's plenty of volatility to come on both the domestic front and the trade front,' said Twidale. "I don't think policy uncertainty bodes well for Japanese equities, plus we still have the U.S. tariffs hanging over their heads and the new political setup could make things more tricky,' he added.
Reuters
15 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Moody's says sales tax cut impact on Japan's rating will depend on scope, permanence
TOKYO, July 22 (Reuters) - Moody's Ratings said on Tuesday the potential impact of a cut to Japan's consumption taxes on the country's sovereign debt rating will depend on the "scope, magnitude and permanence." Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition lost its majority in upper house elections on Sunday, heightening the chance it may heed opposition calls for bigger spending and possibly cuts to Japan's consumption tax rate of 10%, except for food items at 8%. With the ruling coalition now required to seek the cooperation of opposition parties to pass legislation through parliament, prospects for fiscal expansion will heighten, said Christian de Guzman, senior vice president and manager at Moody's Ratings. But the ruling coalition's position remains "sufficiently strong" to preempt significant changes to the consumption tax rates, he said in a statement on Tuesday. "The potential credit impact of a lowering of consumption taxes will depend on their scope, magnitude and permanence," he added. Moody's has rated Japan A1, the fifth-highest level, with a "stable" outlook since December 2014. But it warned in a report in May that it may downgrade the rating "if prospects increase of a material and sustained widening in fiscal deficits leading to a significant deterioration" in Japan's already high debt burden. Japanese government bond (JGB) yields rose prior to the election on concerns a loss by fiscal hawk Ishiba's ruling party could heighten the chance of big spending and cuts to Japan's consumption tax. Before the election, Ishiba shunned calls to slash the consumption tax, which funds social welfare costs for a rapidly ageing population. He reiterated his caution over the idea after the election, telling reporters on Monday that cutting the tax could temporarily increase household income, but would raise questions on how to pay for Japan's ballooning social welfare costs. The Bank of Japan's efforts to roll back its massive stimulus also increase the cost of funding Japan's debt burden, which is the highest in the developed world at 250% of GDP. A credit rating downgrade to Japan's sovereign debt could trigger a sell-off of bonds, yen and Japanese stocks, and boost the cost of dollar funding for domestic banks, analysts say.
Free Malaysia Today
16 hours ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Japan PM's future in doubt after election debacle
Shigeru Ishiba's LDP party coalition, which has governed almost continuously since 1955, lost its upper house grip after failing to secure 50 seats. (AP pic) TOKYO : Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future was unclear Monday after his coalition appeared to have disastrously lost its upper house majority in elections that saw strong gains by a right-wing populist party. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost continuously since 1955, and its partner Komeito had to win 50 seats in Sunday's vote but they secured only around 41, according to local media projections. Voters angry at inflation turned to other parties, notably the 'Japanese first' Sanseito, which made strong gains with its 'anti-globalist' drive reminiscent of US President Donald Trump's agenda. The debacle comes only months after Ishiba's coalition also lost its majority in the lower house, suffering the LDP's worst result in 15 years. Ishiba, 68, a self-avowed policy 'geek' seen as a safe pair of hands when he won the LDP leadership in September — on his fifth attempt — was tight-lipped late Sunday about his future. 'It's a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously,' Ishiba told broadcaster NHK. Asked about his future, he said only that he 'cannot speak lightly of it'. 'We can't do anything until we see the final results, but we want to be very aware of our responsibility,' Ishiba added. If he goes, it was unclear who might step up as the LDP's 11th premier since 2000 now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers. 'Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it's not clear who will be the successor,' Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, told AFP. Rice price After years of stagnant or falling prices, consumers in the world's fourth-largest economy have been squeezed by inflation since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In particular, the price of rice has doubled, squeezing many household budgets despite government handouts. Voter Hisayo Kojima — one of legions of older people in Japan's falling and ageing population — said outside a voting station on Sunday that her pension 'is being cut shorter and shorter'. 'We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me,' the 65-year-old told AFP in Tokyo. Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 percent due to bite from August 1 if there is no trade deal with the United States. Japanese imports are already subject to a 10 percent tariff, while the auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of jobs, is reeling from a 25 percent levy. Weak export data last week, which showed plummeting US-bound auto deliveries, stoked fears that Japan could tip into a technical recession. Despite Ishiba securing an early meeting with Trump in February, and sending his trade envoy to Washington seven times, there has been no accord. 'Japanese first' The last time the LDP and Komeito failed to win a majority in the upper house was in 2010, having already fallen below the threshold in 2007. That was followed by a rare change of government in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan governed for a rocky three years. Today, the opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government. Populist opposition party Sanseito wants 'stricter rules and limits' on immigration, opposes 'globalism' and 'radical' gender policies, and wants a rethink on decarbonisation and vaccines. Last week, it was forced to deny any links to Moscow — which has backed populist parties elsewhere — after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media. 'They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn't put into words for many years,' one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.
Free Malaysia Today
16 hours ago
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
US treasury secretary says Japan trade deal ‘remains possible'
US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said a 'mutually benefical' trade agreement between the US and Japan was possible. (EPA Images pic) TOKYO : US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said Friday that a trade deal with Japan remained possible, following talks in Tokyo ahead of the looming Aug 1 imposition of new tariffs. 'A good deal is more important than a rushed deal, and a mutually beneficial trade agreement between the US and Japan remains within the realm of possibility,' Bessent said on X. 'I look forward to continuing formal talks in the future,' Bessent said following discussions with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa. US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports of Japanese cars, steel and aluminium earlier this year. Trump sent letters to Japan and a string of other countries earlier this month informing them that higher import tariffs will kick in on Aug 1 unless they reach a deal with the US. For Japanese imports, the additional tariff was set at 25%. It was the second time the US president has set a deadline after he postponed tariffs on almost all countries in April for 90 days. Recent weak export data, including a sharp drop in vehicle exports to the US, raised fears that Japan, the world's fourth-largest economy, could tip into a technical recession. Trump this week poured cold water on the prospects of an agreement, saying Japan won't 'open up their country'. Earlier this month, Ishiba, who faces tough upper house elections on Sunday that could end his premiership, said: 'We will not easily compromise.'
